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The Autumn 2022 Wave of Covid-19 in Cornwall

The UK Government is now only updating its Covid-19 Dashboard once a week. Here’s last week’s Cornwall wide overview:

The effectiveness of the current Covid-19 testing regime is certainly open to question, but an increase of almost 25% in a week certainly gives some cause for concern.

Zooming in to North Cornwall, there is currently a “hot spot” of cases just up the A39 “Atlantic Highway” from here in the Poundstock MSOA:

There are currently fewer hotspots with a weekly case rate over 100 per 100,000 population in West Cornwall:

Recently there has also been a slight increase in Covid admissions to the Royal Cornwall Hospital Trust:

This analysis suggests that hospital admissions across South West England as a whole have also started to increase:

“Implied R estimate rising towards 1.0”. We await next week’s data with much interest.

[Edit – September 22nd]

The case rates across the county on September 17th don’t look alarming in the least:

However the same cannot be said for hospital admissions:

What could possibly have caused that sudden spike in admissions on September 19th?

[Edit – September 29th]

His Majesty’s Government have released the latest weekly Covid-19 statistics, and they do not look encouraging for Cornwall. Let’s start with the case rates on September 24th, although as we shall see the current lack of exhaustive testing means they are a long way from the whole story:

The weekly case rate per 100,000 population has almost double in one week across the county as a whole. Here in North(ish) Cornwall the current “hot spot” is Callington with a case rate of over 200. There is also a wide area with over 100 cases per 100,000:

Things don’t look quite so bad further west, but Camborne East is also in the over 200 club:

Here is the most surprising sets of graphs. Hospital admissions and in-patients suffering from Covid-19 for the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust:

The data is incomplete for the past few days, but the most recent wave of Covid-19 in Kernow has already reached the level of the July peak.

[Edit – October 6th]

The weekly Covid-19 case rate per 100,000 population across Cornwall has crept over the 100.0 mark this week:

Here in North(ish) Cornwall the current hotspot is still Callington, with a case rate over 200.0 on October 1st. Liskeard is not far behind:

Further west parts of Truro are also dark blue on the Government’s map:

After the surge over the previous two weeks hospital admissions and in-patients suffering from Covid-19 have stabilised at the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust:

[Edit – October 13th]

The weekly Covid-19 case rate across Cornwall rose by 20% last week and is now over 125 per 100,000 population:

Torpoint in South East Cornwall is the first MSOA in the county to reach a case rate of over 400 in the current wave of the Covid-19 pandemic:

In North(ish) Cornwall St. Neot & St. Cleer tops the current leader board with a rate of almost 225.

Further west St. Day is somewhat higher, with a rate of 263.8:

Hospital admissions and in-patients suffering from Covid-19 at the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust are slowly declining:

[Edit – October 20th]

The weekly Covid-19 case rate across Cornwall fell last week. It is now just over 100 per 100,000 population:

Torpoint is still a Covid-19 hotspot, but the case rate has reduced to 250.3. Here in North Cornwall the case rate in Bodmin East has increased to 236.2:

Further west Mevagissey has a rate of 186.2:

Despite the falling case rate the number of in-patients at the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust suffering from Covid-19 is increasing once again:

Watch this space!

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Autumn Coping With Covid-19 in Cornwall

For the previous episode in the ongoing saga of the Covid-19 pandemic here in Cornwall please see:

“The Covid-19 Holiday Season in Cornwall“

Schools have gone back and the clocks change in a couple of weeks, but Covid-19 is still with us. In actual fact it’s on the increase again. Both nationally:

and here in the Camelford MSOA, where we now find ourselves in the top DHSC category with a case rate of 889.8 per 100,000 people per week:

Just down the A39 “Atlantic Highway” in Wadebridge the rate is now over 1,000.

Further west the top spot goes to Camborne West, with a case rate of 946.4:

As you can see from the maps there are several other area across Cornwall in the 800+ category, whilst across Cornwall as a whole the average case rate is 539.5, an increase of 15.6% compared to a week ago:

[Edit – October 22nd]

Further to the BBC report in the comments below, the The Royal Cornwall Hospitals Trust is “tweeting” much the same story:

They are also providing their current Covid-19 statistics:

https://twitter.com/RCHTWeCare/status/1451572071834734595

The UK Government statistics show Covid-19 cases still rising quickly across the nation as a whole:

Across Cornwall as a whole the rolling weekly case rate is still almost unchanged at 546.8 per 100,000 population:

Here in the Camelford area the case rate has fallen to 528.3. However the rate in Bude has risen to 924.6, whilst Bodmin West has fallen slightly to 954.1:

Further south Par is now home to an outbreak with a case rate over 1,000:

The BBC reports today that:

MPs are asking for help from the government to deal with a “perfect storm” in the health system.

There have been more than 100 patients waiting to be seen in an emergency department designed for 40, and 25 ambulances waiting outside.

The hospital trust’s medical director said the situation was improving slowly.

Steve Double, MP for Newquay and St Austell, said: “It is regrettably a sort of perfect storm of a number of factors coming together that is creating this unprecedented level of demand on our system.”

Mr Double said he had spoken with health minister Ed Argar who was “asking for further details to see exactly what is going on and what further help could be made available”.

Cherilyn Mackrory, MP for Truro and Falmouth, said she was “acutely aware of the current situation”.

She added: “Whatever the hospital need to alleviate this pressure, I will do to try and help them.