The Autumn 2022 Wave of Covid-19 in Cornwall

The UK Government is now only updating its Covid-19 Dashboard once a week. Here’s last week’s Cornwall wide overview:

The effectiveness of the current Covid-19 testing regime is certainly open to question, but an increase of almost 25% in a week certainly gives some cause for concern.

Zooming in to North Cornwall, there is currently a “hot spot” of cases just up the A39 “Atlantic Highway” from here in the Poundstock MSOA:

There are currently fewer hotspots with a weekly case rate over 100 per 100,000 population in West Cornwall:

Recently there has also been a slight increase in Covid admissions to the Royal Cornwall Hospital Trust:

This analysis suggests that hospital admissions across South West England as a whole have also started to increase:

“Implied R estimate rising towards 1.0”. We await next week’s data with much interest.

[Edit – September 22nd]

The case rates across the county on September 17th don’t look alarming in the least:

However the same cannot be said for hospital admissions:

What could possibly have caused that sudden spike in admissions on September 19th?

[Edit – September 29th]

His Majesty’s Government have released the latest weekly Covid-19 statistics, and they do not look encouraging for Cornwall. Let’s start with the case rates on September 24th, although as we shall see the current lack of exhaustive testing means they are a long way from the whole story:

The weekly case rate per 100,000 population has almost double in one week across the county as a whole. Here in North(ish) Cornwall the current “hot spot” is Callington with a case rate of over 200. There is also a wide area with over 100 cases per 100,000:

Things don’t look quite so bad further west, but Camborne East is also in the over 200 club:

Here is the most surprising sets of graphs. Hospital admissions and in-patients suffering from Covid-19 for the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust:

The data is incomplete for the past few days, but the most recent wave of Covid-19 in Kernow has already reached the level of the July peak.

[Edit – October 6th]

The weekly Covid-19 case rate per 100,000 population across Cornwall has crept over the 100.0 mark this week:

Here in North(ish) Cornwall the current hotspot is still Callington, with a case rate over 200.0 on October 1st. Liskeard is not far behind:

Further west parts of Truro are also dark blue on the Government’s map:

After the surge over the previous two weeks hospital admissions and in-patients suffering from Covid-19 have stabilised at the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust:

[Edit – October 13th]

The weekly Covid-19 case rate across Cornwall rose by 20% last week and is now over 125 per 100,000 population:

Torpoint in South East Cornwall is the first MSOA in the county to reach a case rate of over 400 in the current wave of the Covid-19 pandemic:

In North(ish) Cornwall St. Neot & St. Cleer tops the current leader board with a rate of almost 225.

Further west St. Day is somewhat higher, with a rate of 263.8:

Hospital admissions and in-patients suffering from Covid-19 at the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust are slowly declining:

[Edit – October 20th]

The weekly Covid-19 case rate across Cornwall fell last week. It is now just over 100 per 100,000 population:

Torpoint is still a Covid-19 hotspot, but the case rate has reduced to 250.3. Here in North Cornwall the case rate in Bodmin East has increased to 236.2:

Further west Mevagissey has a rate of 186.2:

Despite the falling case rate the number of in-patients at the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust suffering from Covid-19 is increasing once again:

Watch this space!

The Omicron Variant in Cornwall

Confirmed Covid-19 cases across Cornwall have been slowly decreasing recently, but that is about to change. Here is the current national case rate graph:

Here too is some recent news from London:

Of course we don’t have many towns here in North Cornwall, but a few miles up the A39 from Davidstow the (5 days delayed) rolling weekly case rate in the Bude MSOA has just crept above 800 again:

[Edit – December 29th]

After a break in reporting over the Christmas holiday the UK Government is issuing Covid-19 data again. There has been a big jump in UK wide cases today, no doubt partly due to some catching up after Xmas:

Continue reading “The Omicron Variant in Cornwall”

The Post G7 Covid-19 Outbreak in Cornwall

We commented yesterday on the current outbreak of Covid-19 cases further west in Cornwall than Davidstow, and suggested that the cause may be the recent G7 Summit in St. Ives, which finished on Sunday.

Here is yesterday’s map:

Together with a “heatmap” showing the age distribution of cases across Cornwall as a whole:

The far right of the image suggests that during this so called “third wave” of Covid-19 cases, the 15 to 24 age range has been the hardest hit. Possibly that’s because this section of the population has yet to be vaccinated?

The official data for June 10th have also just been released, and this is how the latest map looks:

Truro, Redruth and Mevagissey are no longer pure white, as they were on June 9th. A total of 27 cases in St. Ives doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s an enormous percentage increase on the previous 7 days.

Watch this space!